Racing Through the Fog
Misinformation about an Ukrainian missile striking Poland should give us all pause
On November 15, 2022, two people died when a missile stuck Poland.
Almost immediately, many raced to the assumption that the missile was fired by Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not wait to decree the missile was fired by Russia, going so far as to say
The longer Russia feels impunity, the more threats there will be to anyone within reach of Russian missiles. To fire missiles at NATO territory! This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a very significant escalation. We must act.
The Associated Press also entered the fray rapidly, quoting an anonymous “senior U.S. intelligence official” who stated a Russian missile struck Poland.
The belief that a Russian missile had killed two farmers in a NATO-member country (and the implication that the missile had been deliberately fired) set off a round of chest thumping amongst the commentariat and on social media. Many called to invoke Article 5, the collective defense provision in the NATO treaty. Zelensky’s bellicose remarks were clearly deliberately evocative of this. A full-fledged, direct NATO or US armed conflict with Russia would, of course, have drastic consequences.
There was one problem.
It seems very unlikely that Russia fired the missile at all. The US, Poland, and NATO have all concluded that a Ukrainian missile (launched at a Russian missile) struck Poland. In spite of this mounting evidence, Zelensky has continued to insist otherwise.
One of the biggest questions remaining is what was the intent of the anonymous intelligence official who assigned blame to Russia. Perhaps, they did not deliberately act nefariously. The missile was Russian made (though the implication was always that it was Russian fired, not just Russian made).
But intelligence officials have a long, sordid history of manipulating public policy by feeding disinformation to the media. And there is zero question that even before Russia’s illegal, immoral invasion of Ukraine that a faction of the national security state sought an escalation with Russia. Journalists should exercise critical thinking when dealing with the security state.
Given the potentially catastrophic (if not apocalyptic ) consequences of misinformation about Russia striking a NATO member, the media, politicians, and public need to be extra careful not to race to conclusions. Fog of war is real (though, of course, the concept can be cynically abused to evade responsibility or engage in atrocity denial).
Unfortunately, pushing back on anything or even just failing to engage in the most aggressive posturing when it comes to Russia and Ukraine is extremely difficult at the moment.
To be clear, I have no sympathy for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It is illegal under international law and deeply immoral. And I have zero doubts that Russian forces are likely engaged in atrocities. Such atrocities are the hallmark of all modern wars, as evidenced by the US in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. War is barbarism and it has increasingly become barbarism directed at civilian populations.
But the discourse around the Russian-Ukraine War mirrors that in the United States immediately after 9/11. Any criticism of official pronouncement or departure from the most bellicose of positions got one exiled from public life, branded a traitor, and a Putin sympathizer
. The September 11, 2001 attacks, like the Russian invasion, were unjustifiable crimes. But people were eventually forced to reckon with the that the history of US intervention in the Middle East did not begin on September 11, 2001. Nor did it end there. The history of current conflict in Ukraine and US involvement similarly did not start on February 24, 2022.
Critical reporting and skepticism is always important, but they are especially important in matters of war and peace. In escalating conflict between two nuclear armed powers, the stakes are even higher.
It should give everyone pause for reflection that a Ukraine missile struck Poland, anonymous intelligence officials told journalists Russia was to blame, and many left into lobbying for World War III.